Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1909 at 00:05 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–32%.

Safest bet that day DL 1909 SLC 00:05 → JFK 06:16 · 14% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 697 SLC 17:10 → JFK 23:47 · 32% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1909 Delta	SLC 00:05	JFK 06:16	14%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1792 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:59	JFK 16:47	20%	5%	0.7%	84%
B6 372 JetBlue Flight history →	SLC 00:12	JFK 06:20	23%	6%	1.0%	79%
DL 671 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:35	JFK 21:25	30%	8%	1.0%	79%
DL 697 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	JFK 23:47	32%	9%	1.4%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54DL 2935	2h 21m Minneapolis	MSP 23:15 → JFK 01:32 +1DL 2692	6h 11m	96%	65%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON