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Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3880 at 06:45 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 35–48%.

Safest bet that day WN 3880 SLC 06:45 → LAS 07:18 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3913 SLC 18:01 → LAS 18:35 · 48% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.

WN 3880 Southwest SLC 06:45 LAS 07:18 4% 1% 0.6% no record
DL 1698 Delta Flight history → SLC 08:25 LAS 08:50 11% 3% 0.7% 94%
WN 4332 Southwest SLC 11:10 LAS 11:42 17% 4% 0.6% no record
F9 4695 Frontier Flight history → SLC 09:18 LAS 09:58 18% 7% 1.1% 87%
DL 1659 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:35 LAS 12:01 27% 5% 0.7% 77%
DL 1662 Delta Flight history → SLC 23:15 LAS 23:40 35% 10% 1.0% 80%worse than usual
F9 1507 Frontier Flight history → SLC 20:18 LAS 21:00 41% 17% 4.2% 75%worse than usual
DL 1672 Delta Flight history → SLC 15:30 LAS 15:55 41% 12% 0.9% 76%worse than usual
WN 2236 Southwest SLC 21:25 LAS 21:59 42% 11% 1.7% no record
DL 1690 Delta Flight history → SLC 17:40 LAS 18:04 47% 15% 1.3% 75%worse than usual
WN 3913 Southwest SLC 18:01 LAS 18:35 48% 23% 3.4% no record
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON