Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 11 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 5408 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 12% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 34–50%.

Safest bet that day UA 5408 SLC 07:45 → LAX 09:15 · 12% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 3541 SLC 17:20 → LAX 18:20 · 50% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 5408 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:45	LAX 09:15	12%	5%	0.6%	90%
OO 5916 SkyWest	SLC 14:15	LAX 15:22	20%	6%	0.7%	no record
DL 829 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	LAX 12:27	20%	6%	0.7%	88%
DL 1095 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	LAX 10:34	20%	5%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
DL 1087 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:53	LAX 08:50	22%	6%	0.7%	92%worse than usual
DL 841 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:40	LAX 16:36	30%	9%	0.8%	81%worse than usual
DL 1197 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	LAX 23:42	34%	9%	1.5%	84%worse than usual
DL 1161 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	LAX 18:07	44%	10%	1.1%	85%worse than usual
DL 1142 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:35	LAX 21:29	46%	10%	2.1%	76%worse than usual
F9 1267 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 18:58	LAX 20:08	46%	14%	3.9%	91%worse than usual
WN 3541 Southwest	SLC 17:20	LAX 18:20	50%	13%	1.0%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON