Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4154 at 10:50 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–36%.

Safest bet that day WN 4154 SLC 10:50 → LGB 11:51 · 13% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1345 SLC 19:20 → LGB 20:22 · 36% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4154 Southwest	SLC 10:50	LGB 11:51	13%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1116 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:05	LGB 11:59	16%	5%	0.8%	90%
OO 108 SkyWest	SLC 15:03	LGB 16:09	21%	5%	0.8%	no record
DL 1167 Delta	SLC 20:45	LGB 21:45	28%	7%	3.0%	no record
WN 1345 Southwest	SLC 19:20	LGB 20:22	36%	11%	3.3%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON