Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 4 nonstops are 26–36% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 2032 SLC 09:35 → MCO 16:13 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time Riskiest DL 2056 SLC 17:25 → MCO 23:55 · 36% chance 15+ min late · usually 82% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2032 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:35	MCO 16:13	26%	7%	1.3%	84%
DL 2069 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:36	MCO 06:00	27%	7%	0.9%	85%worse than usual
DL 2024 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:23	MCO 18:01	29%	8%	0.9%	81%
DL 2056 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	MCO 23:55	36%	12%	1.2%	82%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 06m Atlanta	ATL 15:00 → MCO 16:40DL 1150	6h 30m	89%	61%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON