Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 11–12% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 3722 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 22:59	MFR 23:54	11%	4%	1.5%	94%
DL 3806 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	MFR 11:40	12%	3%	0.6%	90%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Medford on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Medford is 1 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Alaska Details →	SLC 12:26 → PDX 13:31AS 3430 · flown by SkyWest	1h 17m Portland	PDX 14:48 → MFR 16:05AS 3337 · flown by SkyWest	4h 39m	92%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	2h 16m Seattle	SEA 11:18 → MFR 12:59DL 3779 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	98%	79%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	3h 02m Seattle	SEA 21:35 → MFR 23:11DL 3954 · flown by SkyWest	6h 51m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995	2h 21m Seattle	SEA 15:10 → MFR 16:44DL 3770 · flown by SkyWest	6h 09m	94%	77%
Alaska Details →	SLC 06:01 → SEA 07:10AS 3344 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Seattle	SEA 08:25 → MFR 09:54AS 2111 · flown by Horizon	4h 53m	95%	76%
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	2h 40m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → MFR 00:04 +1AS 2461 · flown by Horizon	6h 20m	90%	73%
United Details →	SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232	2h 38m Denver	DEN 11:20 → MFR 13:05UA 337	7h 05m	98%	71%
Alaska Details →	SLC 19:37 → PDX 20:41AS 3308 · flown by SkyWest	1h 23m Portland	PDX 22:04 → MFR 23:06AS 2266 · flown by Horizon	4h 29m	91%	70%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SLC 18:54 → SFO 20:03UA 5457 · flown by SkyWest	1h 06m San Francisco	SFO 21:09 → MFR 22:34UA 1219	4h 40m	68%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON