Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 4112 at 10:55 is the safest bet, 6% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 12–20%.

Safest bet that day DL 4112 SLC 10:55 → MSO 12:35 · 6% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 1824 SLC 22:49 → MSO 00:24 · 20% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 4112 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:55	MSO 12:35	6%	3%	0.7%	96%
DL 3808 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 16:05	MSO 17:45	12%	6%	1.1%	91%
DL 1824 Delta	SLC 22:49	MSO 00:24	20%	7%	1.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON