Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2916 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 10% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 19–30%.

Safest bet that day DL 2916 SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29 · 10% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time Riskiest DL 2935 SLC 17:21 → MSP 20:54 · 30% chance 15+ min late · usually 83% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2916 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:00	MSP 11:29	10%	3%	0.6%	91%
DL 2924 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	MSP 14:40	14%	4%	0.6%	90%
DL 8847 Delta	SLC 23:17	MSP 02:49	19%	8%	1.1%	no record
DL 2936 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:00	MSP 17:32	23%	6%	0.7%	88%worse than usual
DL 2935 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	MSP 20:54	30%	8%	1.0%	83%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON