Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2738 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 10–19%.

Safest bet that day WN 2738 SLC 07:00 → OAK 08:02 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 3903 SLC 15:20 → OAK 16:21 · 19% chance 15+ min late · usually 91% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2738 Southwest	SLC 07:00	OAK 08:02	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 4134 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:45	OAK 11:46	10%	4%	0.6%	93%
DL 3797 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 22:50	OAK 23:50	14%	6%	1.5%	95%
DL 3903 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:20	OAK 16:21	19%	6%	0.8%	91%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON