tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via SFO, leaving 06:05, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Kahului on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 623 Delta Flight history → SLC 11:30 OGG 14:08 27% 7% 1.0% 85%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 4 h behind Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest 2h 46m San Francisco SFO 10:05 → OGG 12:34UA 573 10h 29m 99% 80%
UnitedDetails → SLC 07:00 → DEN 08:42UA 1232 3h 18m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 12h 05m 99% 77%
UnitedDetails → SLC 09:49 → SFO 11:13UA 5970 · flown by SkyWest 2h 52m San Francisco SFO 14:05 → OGG 16:36UA 2623 10h 47m 96% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 14:57 → SEA 16:00AS 734 2h 59m Seattle SEA 18:59 → OGG 22:07AS 202 11h 10m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SLC 11:35 → SEA 12:49DL 2995 2h 10m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 10h 21m 94% 74%
AmericanDetails → SLC 07:13 → PHX 07:57AA 6327 · flown by SkyWest 3h 06m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 19m 96% 74%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 07:40 → SAN 08:50AS 3018 · flown by SkyWest 2h 10m San Diego SAN 11:00 → OGG 13:50AS 232 10h 10m 99% 72%
AlaskaDetails → SLC 09:41 → SEA 10:44AS 719 3h 09m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 11h 18m 100% 70%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON