Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: OO 3872 at 08:11 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 11–25%.

Safest bet that day OO 3872 SLC 08:11 → ONT 09:15 · 9% chance 15+ min late Riskiest DL 1614 SLC 22:59 → ONT 23:48 · 25% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


OO 3872 SkyWest	SLC 08:11	ONT 09:15	9%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1173 Delta	SLC 11:17	ONT 12:16	11%	5%	0.7%	no record
OO 3744 SkyWest	SLC 15:34	ONT 16:39	16%	7%	0.9%	no record
DL 1614 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:59	ONT 23:48	25%	9%	1.9%	89%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON