Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2247 at 07:50 is the safest bet, 16% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 51–57%.

Safest bet that day DL 2247 SLC 07:50 → ORD 12:00 · 16% chance 15+ min late · usually 88% on time Riskiest AA 1873 SLC 16:48 → ORD 21:02 · 57% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2247 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:50	ORD 12:00	16%	6%	0.7%	88%
AA 2883 American Flight history →	SLC 06:49	ORD 10:51	17%	8%	1.0%	85%
UA 1502 United Flight history →	SLC 08:00	ORD 12:20	17%	9%	0.8%	84%
AA 3072 American	SLC 11:38	ORD 15:48	41%	19%	1.8%	no record
UA 1382 United Flight history →	SLC 12:47	ORD 16:57	44%	21%	1.2%	76%worse than usual
AA 3258 American Flight history →	SLC 13:29	ORD 17:43	48%	24%	1.7%	60%
DL 2377 Delta Flight history →	SLC 14:40	ORD 18:57	51%	24%	0.9%	72%worse than usual
DL 2413 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:21	ORD 21:29	51%	24%	1.4%	75%worse than usual
UA 1963 United Flight history →	SLC 16:15	ORD 20:32	54%	25%	1.3%	73%worse than usual
AA 1873 American	SLC 16:48	ORD 21:02	57%	26%	2.1%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON