Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1203 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 1203 SLC 07:45 → PDX 08:37 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 89% on time Riskiest DL 1238 SLC 17:25 → PDX 18:18 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1203 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	PDX 08:37	9%	3%	0.8%	89%
AS 3430 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:26	PDX 13:31	10%	5%	0.6%	90%
AS 446 Alaska	SLC 08:23	PDX 09:21	11%	3%	0.8%	no record
DL 1209 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:15	PDX 12:10	13%	5%	0.7%	89%
DL 1244 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:17	PDX 16:09	22%	6%	1.1%	88%worse than usual
AS 3308 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 19:37	PDX 20:41	23%	10%	3.0%	86%
DL 1373 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:50	PDX 23:44	24%	9%	1.8%	89%worse than usual
DL 1238 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PDX 18:18	26%	8%	1.3%	87%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON