Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 72% chance of reaching Philadelphia on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 48% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


AA 872 American	SLC 07:21	PHL 13:48	14%	5%	1.2%	no record
DL 2022 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:20	PHL 17:39	19%	5%	0.7%	86%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Philadelphia on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Philadelphia is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	2h 15m Atlanta	ATL 08:55 → PHL 10:57DL 2270	8h 10m	100%	89%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 41m Denver	DEN 09:35 → PHL 15:12UA 1575	7h 57m	99%	81%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 56m Minneapolis	MSP 14:25 → PHL 18:04DL 2594	8h 04m	99%	80%
United Details →	SLC 06:05 → SFO 07:19UA 4763 · flown by SkyWest	1h 43m San Francisco	SFO 09:02 → PHL 17:14UA 2824	9h 09m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:50 → BOS 16:36DL 657	3h 49m Boston	BOS 20:25 → PHL 22:07DL 5610 · flown by Republic	10h 17m	99%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	3h 36m Detroit	DTW 15:00 → PHL 16:43DL 1391	8h 43m	100%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 20m Detroit	DTW 21:35 → PHL 23:16DL 2402	7h 26m	96%	77%
Delta Details →	SLC 17:20 → SEA 18:33DL 871	2h 47m Seattle	SEA 21:20 → PHL 05:29 +1DL 1114	10h 09m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SLC 18:44 → SEA 20:00AS 665	1h 31m Seattle	SEA 21:31 → PHL 05:42 +1AS 371	8h 58m	63%	47%
Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	50m Atlanta	ATL 07:30 → PHL 09:31DL 1100	6h 44m	48%	44%
United Details →	SLC 12:47 → ORD 16:57UA 1382	1h 02m Chicago	ORD 17:59 → PHL 21:19UA 1776	6h 32m	59%	27%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON