Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 17 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 4507 at 06:15 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 28–43%.

Safest bet that day WN 4507 SLC 06:15 → PHX 07:01 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 2907 SLC 19:17 → PHX 20:25 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 4507 Southwest	SLC 06:15	PHX 07:01	5%	2%	0.7%	no record
DL 1447 Delta Flight history →	SLC 08:05	PHX 08:44	11%	5%	0.7%	95%
AA 6327 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:13	PHX 07:57	13%	5%	0.7%	91%
WN 2229 Southwest	SLC 10:24	PHX 11:14	16%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3453 Southwest	SLC 12:19	PHX 13:05	19%	6%	0.6%	no record
AA 6422 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 12:17	PHX 13:02	20%	7%	0.6%	87%
DL 1431 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:30	PHX 12:12	20%	6%	0.7%	86%
AA 6462 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:48	PHX 14:34	23%	7%	0.7%	96%worse than usual
DL 1738 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:20	PHX 16:04	25%	9%	0.8%	85%
F9 3871 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 12:41	PHX 13:21	27%	10%	1.3%	86%worse than usual
DL 1496 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	PHX 23:31	28%	11%	1.9%	88%worse than usual
WN 2909 Southwest	SLC 16:20	PHX 17:11	32%	13%	0.9%	no record
DL 1451 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:25	PHX 18:07	33%	11%	1.2%	89%worse than usual
WN 3326 Southwest	SLC 20:50	PHX 21:36	38%	15%	1.9%	no record
F9 1439 Frontier Flight history →	SLC 22:18	PHX 23:12	40%	18%	2.3%	77%worse than usual
WN 3679 Southwest	SLC 18:10	PHX 18:56	41%	17%	2.7%	no record
AA 2907 American	SLC 19:17	PHX 20:25	43%	17%	3.9%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON