Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 402 at 17:51, with a 30% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 402 Delta	SLC 17:51	RDU 23:52	30%	12%	1.2%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Raleigh/Durham on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Raleigh/Durham is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	2h 03m Atlanta	ATL 08:43 → RDU 10:10DL 1699	7h 23m	100%	91%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 55m Denver	DEN 09:49 → RDU 15:16UA 2269	8h 01m	99%	85%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	2h 08m Atlanta	ATL 14:52 → RDU 16:20DL 1550	7h 20m	98%	82%
United Details →	SLC 09:39 → IAD 15:42UA 1322	3h 14m Dulles	IAD 18:56 → RDU 20:15UA 1322	8h 36m	100%	79%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	2h 51m Minneapolis	MSP 14:20 → RDU 17:51DL 2699	7h 51m	99%	79%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897	1h 54m Atlanta	ATL 15:48 → RDU 17:22DL 2600	7h 12m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:50 → DTW 19:15DL 2244	2h 25m Detroit	DTW 21:40 → RDU 23:25DL 2839	7h 35m	96%	76%
United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	1h 15m Houston	IAH 12:12 → RDU 16:03UA 2196	7h 18m	94%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 13:29 → ORD 17:43AA 3258	1h 07m Chicago	ORD 18:50 → RDU 22:09AA 2167	6h 40m	56%	23%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON