Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1177 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 14% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 31–39%.

Safest bet that day DL 1177 SLC 07:45 → SAN 08:41 · 14% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 1252 SLC 17:10 → SAN 18:06 · 39% chance 15+ min late · usually 84% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1177 Delta Flight history →	SLC 07:45	SAN 08:41	14%	4%	0.7%	93%
AS 3018 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 07:40	SAN 08:50	15%	5%	0.7%	93%
WN 3685 Southwest	SLC 09:05	SAN 10:09	19%	4%	0.6%	no record
DL 1296 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:10	SAN 12:08	24%	7%	0.7%	84%
OO 3119 SkyWest	SLC 14:17	SAN 15:26	27%	8%	0.9%	no record
DL 1202 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:55	SAN 23:50	31%	10%	1.9%	83%worse than usual
DL 1210 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SAN 15:56	35%	10%	1.0%	76%worse than usual
WN 3746 Southwest	SLC 15:45	SAN 16:50	35%	11%	0.9%	no record
AS 3019 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 18:06	SAN 19:16	35%	12%	4.7%	80%worse than usual
DL 1252 Delta Flight history →	SLC 17:10	SAN 18:06	39%	10%	1.4%	84%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON