Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 11–18% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 3841 SLC 10:50 → SBA 11:59 · 11% chance 15+ min late · usually 96% on time Riskiest DL 3853 SLC 15:00 → SBA 16:03 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3841 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 10:50	SBA 11:59	11%	4%	0.7%	96%
DL 3803 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 21:05	SBA 22:05	15%	5%	1.9%	96%worse than usual
DL 3853 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:00	SBA 16:03	18%	5%	1.0%	87%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON