Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · 5 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 1254 at 11:50 is the safest bet, 18% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 23–40%.

Safest bet that day DL 1254 SLC 11:50 → SJC 12:45 · 18% chance 15+ min late · usually 90% on time Riskiest WN 9003 SLC 19:35 → SJC 20:40 · 40% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 1254 Delta Flight history →	SLC 11:50	SJC 12:45	18%	4%	0.7%	90%
DL 3937 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 17:25	SJC 18:26	23%	9%	1.3%	77%
DL 1260 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	SJC 16:04	27%	7%	0.8%	90%worse than usual
DL 1272 Delta Flight history →	SLC 22:45	SJC 23:39	29%	10%	1.8%	83%worse than usual
WN 9003 Southwest	SLC 19:35	SJC 20:40	40%	17%	4.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON