Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 2455 at 09:40 is the safest bet, 13% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26–29%.

Safest bet that day DL 2455 SLC 09:40 → STL 13:33 · 13% chance 15+ min late · usually 92% on time Riskiest DL 2666 SLC 20:50 → STL 00:41 · 29% chance 15+ min late · usually 81% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 2455 Delta Flight history →	SLC 09:40	STL 13:33	13%	4%	0.7%	92%
DL 1492 Delta Flight history →	SLC 15:10	STL 19:00	26%	9%	0.7%	81%
DL 2666 Delta Flight history →	SLC 20:50	STL 00:41	29%	9%	2.0%	81%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON