Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 07:00, is the safest bet: 76% chance of reaching Tampa on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 60% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 2077 Delta Flight history →	SLC 23:50	TPA 06:01	19%	6%	1.1%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tampa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tampa is 2 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	1h 49m Atlanta	ATL 08:29 → TPA 09:59DL 1227	7h 12m	100%	90%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 46m Denver	DEN 09:40 → TPA 15:14UA 1010	7h 59m	99%	83%
United Details →	SLC 09:39 → IAD 15:42UA 1322	2h 18m Dulles	IAD 18:00 → TPA 20:39UA 1140	9h 00m	100%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 06:00 → DTW 11:24DL 2289	2h 43m Detroit	DTW 14:07 → TPA 16:45DL 1243	8h 45m	99%	80%
Delta Details →	SLC 08:00 → MSP 11:29DL 2916	1h 50m Minneapolis	MSP 13:19 → TPA 17:32DL 2264	7h 32m	97%	79%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 28m Denver	DEN 13:55 → TPA 19:33UA 2375	9h 03m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	3h 08m New York	JFK 19:55 → TPA 23:20DL 1636	11h 21m	99%	74%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:50 → SEA 09:02DL 2874	2h 43m Seattle	SEA 11:45 → TPA 20:19DL 358	10h 29m	99%	74%
Tight connection: often missed
Delta Details →	SLC 09:55 → ATL 15:39DL 835	46m Atlanta	ATL 16:25 → TPA 17:59DL 1425	6h 04m	60%	44%
Delta Details →	SLC 20:35 → LAX 21:29DL 1142	1h 05m Los Angeles	LAX 22:34 → TPA 06:16 +1DL 910	7h 41m	63%	44%
Frontier Details →	SLC 16:09 → DEN 17:47F9 4236	1h 10m Denver	DEN 18:57 → TPA 00:34 +1F9 2746	6h 25m	63%	32%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON