tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3825 at 20:30, with a 25% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
DL 3825 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history → SLC 20:30 TUL 23:59 25% 6% 2.7% 83%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Tulsa on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Tulsa is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770 1h 40m Atlanta ATL 08:20 → TUL 09:18DL 2754 7h 31m 100% 91%
UnitedDetails → SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest 3h 10m Denver DEN 10:04 → TUL 12:59UA 5315 · flown by SkyWest 6h 44m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366 3h 38m Houston IAH 14:35 → TUL 16:15UA 4239 · flown by CommuteAir 8h 30m 98% 80%
DeltaDetails → SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907 2h 11m Atlanta ATL 14:55 → TUL 15:53DL 1186 7h 53m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SLC 13:07 → IAH 17:11UA 497 3h 03m Houston IAH 20:14 → TUL 21:52UA 6269 · flown by Mesa 7h 45m 96% 78%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest 3h 13m Denver DEN 13:40 → TUL 16:29UA 5311 · flown by SkyWest 6h 59m 99% 76%
UnitedDetails → SLC 08:00 → ORD 12:20UA 1502 3h 15m Chicago ORD 15:35 → TUL 17:42UA 4482 · flown by GoJet 8h 42m 97% 73%
DeltaDetails → SLC 08:10 → ATL 13:54DL 897 3h 07m Atlanta ATL 17:01 → TUL 18:04DL 2837 8h 54m 99% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AlaskaDetails → SLC 09:42 → SEA 10:46AS 719 1h 06m Seattle SEA 11:52 → TUL 17:32AS 2217 · flown by Horizon 6h 50m 68% 50%
DeltaDetails → SLC 15:31 → ATL 21:25DL 875 53m Atlanta ATL 22:18 → TUL 23:19DL 2043 6h 48m 64% 48%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON