Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: DL 3718 at 09:25 is the safest bet, 9% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 20–26%.

Safest bet that day DL 3718 SLC 09:25 → TUS 10:24 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 97% on time Riskiest DL 4054 SLC 20:30 → TUS 21:29 · 26% chance 15+ min late · usually 86% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 3718 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 09:25	TUS 10:24	9%	3%	0.6%	97%
DL 3717 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 15:00	TUS 16:06	20%	5%	0.9%	94%worse than usual
DL 4054 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 20:30	TUS 21:29	26%	7%	2.7%	86%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON