Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, DL 3620 at 13:30, with a 18% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


DL 3620 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SLC 13:30	XNA 17:14	18%	7%	0.9%	85%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Fayetteville/Springdale/ on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Fayetteville/Springdale/ is 1 h ahead of Salt Lake City). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SLC 06:45 → IAH 10:57UA 2366	3h 35m Houston	IAH 14:32 → XNA 16:15UA 4062 · flown by Mesa	8h 30m	98%	83%
Delta Details →	SLC 00:47 → ATL 06:40DL 8770	1h 25m Atlanta	ATL 08:05 → XNA 08:59DL 5339 · flown by Endeavor	7h 12m	100%	83%
American Details →	SLC 05:00 → DFW 08:46AA 1214	3h 49m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:57AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	7h 57m	99%	82%
United Details →	SLC 05:15 → DEN 06:54UA 5683 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Denver	DEN 09:50 → XNA 12:47UA 5267 · flown by SkyWest	6h 32m	99%	82%
Delta Details →	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	3h 41m Atlanta	ATL 23:03 → XNA 00:04 +1DL 3747 · flown by SkyWest	9h 29m	98%	79%
American Details →	SLC 13:48 → PHX 14:34AA 6462 · flown by SkyWest	1h 15m Phoenix	PHX 15:49 → XNA 20:30AA 4086 · flown by Envoy	5h 42m	100%	76%
Delta Details →	SLC 07:00 → ATL 12:44DL 907	3h 01m Atlanta	ATL 15:45 → XNA 16:41DL 5128 · flown by Endeavor	8h 41m	99%	76%
United Details →	SLC 08:30 → DEN 10:27UA 5642 · flown by SkyWest	3h 03m Denver	DEN 13:30 → XNA 16:25UA 5641 · flown by SkyWest	6h 55m	99%	75%
Tight connection: often missed
American Details →	SLC 08:00 → DFW 11:47AA 2195	48m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 12:35 → XNA 13:57AA 3803 · flown by Envoy	4h 57m	74%	62%
American Details →	SLC 13:29 → ORD 17:43AA 3258	1h 17m Chicago	ORD 19:00 → XNA 20:53AA 3578 · flown by Envoy	6h 24m	70%	39%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON