Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 3 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 3 nonstops are 9–15% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Safest bet that day DL 741 SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09 · 9% chance 15+ min late · usually 93% on time Riskiest DL 769 SMF 22:56 → ATL 06:31 · 15% chance 15+ min late · usually 95% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


DL 741 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:30	ATL 14:09	9%	3%	0.8%	93%
DL 904 Delta Flight history →	SMF 12:21	ATL 20:05	12%	4%	0.9%	91%
DL 769 Delta Flight history →	SMF 22:56	ATL 06:31	15%	4%	0.8%	95%worse than usual

Alternatives with one stop that day

All connections →


American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	1h 01m Phoenix	PHX 08:56 → ATL 15:46AA 883	6h 46m	90%	67%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	1h 08m Salt Lake City	SLC 13:35 → ATL 19:22DL 906	6h 37m	90%	67%
United Details →	SMF 08:50 → DEN 12:16UA 2285	1h 10m Denver	DEN 13:26 → ATL 18:30UA 1671	6h 40m	92%	64%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON