tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3919 at 05:35, with a 6% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3919 Southwest SMF 05:35 AUS 11:04 6% 1% 0.5% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Austin on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Austin is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 43m Denver DEN 10:05 → AUS 13:20UA 1026 6h 20m 99% 82%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → AUS 14:50DL 3955 · flown by SkyWest 7h 20m 97% 77%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 02m San Francisco SFO 18:36 → AUS 00:16 +1UA 2332 8h 06m 98% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:53 → PDX 13:39AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 4h 00m Portland PDX 17:39 → AUS 23:49AS 1370 9h 56m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 32m Minneapolis MSP 15:10 → AUS 18:04DL 2687 9h 49m 98% 75%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 45m Dulles IAD 18:00 → AUS 20:35UA 2337 10h 26m 98% 74%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 04m Houston IAH 12:05 → AUS 13:12UA 1859 5h 57m 94% 73%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:34 → LAX 09:11UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 1h 36m Los Angeles LAX 10:47 → AUS 15:55UA 1496 6h 21m 94% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
DeltaDetails → SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest 55m Seattle SEA 11:00 → AUS 17:16DL 831 7h 23m 69% 47%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 58m San Francisco SFO 16:32 → AUS 22:16UA 2150 6h 06m 61% 44%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON