Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 82% chance of reaching Nashville on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 13% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3895 Southwest	SMF 23:24	BNA 05:33	15%	6%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Nashville on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Nashville is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 10m Denver	DEN 09:32 → BNA 13:08UA 355	6h 08m	98%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	1h 14m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:25 → BNA 13:46DL 2214	6h 16m	95%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 12m Minneapolis	MSP 12:50 → BNA 14:52DL 2843	6h 37m	95%	79%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 55m Atlanta	ATL 23:00 → BNA 23:15DL 3121	8h 54m	99%	76%
Delta Details →	SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest	2h 39m Los Angeles	LAX 18:31 → BNA 00:33 +1DL 858	8h 18m	97%	75%
United Details →	SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742	1h 27m Dulles	IAD 17:42 → BNA 18:47UA 2264	8h 38m	96%	74%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	3h 45m Seattle	SEA 17:30 → BNA 23:54DL 815	10h 20m	98%	72%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 09:28 → BNA 15:40AS 1532	7h 38m	97%	72%
Tight connection: often missed
United Details →	SMF 16:19 → DEN 19:45UA 566	46m Denver	DEN 20:31 → BNA 00:08 +1UA 1287	5h 49m	13%	8%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON