Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 8 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3900 at 09:00 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 27–33%.

Safest bet that day WN 3900 SMF 09:00 → BUR 10:32 · 7% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 1223 SMF 18:58 → BUR 20:31 · 33% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3900 Southwest	SMF 09:00	BUR 10:32	7%	3%	1.2%	no record
WN 769 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 09:35	BUR 11:07	9%	3%	1.3%	89%
WN 3458 Southwest	SMF 10:55	BUR 12:28	11%	4%	1.2%	no record
WN 3902 Southwest	SMF 13:05	BUR 14:38	18%	5%	1.3%	no record
WN 3842 Southwest	SMF 14:30	BUR 16:03	22%	7%	1.3%	no record
WN 3904 Southwest	SMF 16:55	BUR 18:28	27%	10%	1.4%	no record
WN 3906 Southwest	SMF 20:35	BUR 22:08	27%	11%	1.2%	no record
WN 1223 Southwest	SMF 18:58	BUR 20:31	33%	11%	1.2%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON