tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 84% chance of reaching Baltimore on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3907 Southwest SMF 21:50 BWI 05:51 23% 4% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Baltimore on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Baltimore is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 24m Denver DEN 09:46 → BWI 15:17UA 1362 7h 17m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → BWI 18:19DL 2565 9h 04m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 15m Houston IAH 12:16 → BWI 16:30UA 1720 8h 15m 96% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 3h 48m Atlanta ATL 17:57 → BWI 20:02DL 2928 10h 32m 99% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358 1h 07m Seattle SEA 09:03 → BWI 17:04AS 378 8h 02m 91% 72%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 1h 31m Atlanta ATL 21:36 → BWI 23:41DL 2670 8h 20m 94% 69%
UnitedDetails → SMF 20:29 → SFO 21:47UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 1h 20m San Francisco SFO 23:07 → BWI 07:37 +1UA 1646 8h 08m 77% 62%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10UA 2370 2h 13m Chicago ORD 15:23 → BWI 18:31UA 2737 8h 31m 99% 58%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON