tailodds FORECAST
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Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 05:00, is the safest bet: 81% chance of reaching Charlotte on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 73% of the time.

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Charlotte on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Charlotte is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 26m Denver DEN 09:48 → CLT 15:02UA 2231 7h 02m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 1h 09m Houston IAH 12:10 → CLT 16:02UA 6197 · flown by Mesa 7h 47m 96% 80%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 37m Minneapolis MSP 15:15 → CLT 18:49DL 2821 9h 34m 98% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526 2h 44m Salt Lake City SLC 10:55 → CLT 16:52DL 2070 8h 22m 97% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 36m Atlanta ATL 22:41 → CLT 23:58DL 3177 8h 37m 99% 77%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 05m Phoenix PHX 10:00 → CLT 17:15AA 665 8h 15m 98% 75%
AmericanDetails → SMF 19:21 → PHX 21:26AA 1799 2h 17m Phoenix PHX 23:43 → CLT 06:52 +1AA 2821 8h 31m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 51m Atlanta ATL 17:00 → CLT 18:19DL 3158 8h 49m 98% 70%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 19:21 → PHX 21:26AA 1799 1h 25m Phoenix PHX 22:51 → CLT 06:03 +1AA 2714 7h 42m 73% 55%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON