Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3463 at 22:26, with a 24% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3463 Southwest	SMF 22:26	EUG 23:56	24%	8%	0.9%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Eugene on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 10m Seattle	SEA 22:35 → EUG 23:51DL 3855 · flown by SkyWest	6h 31m	97%	81%
Delta Details →	SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367	2h 29m Salt Lake City	SLC 14:56 → EUG 16:01DL 4105 · flown by SkyWest	6h 16m	97%	81%
United Details →	SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	3h 41m San Francisco	SFO 19:15 → EUG 21:02UA 363	6h 52m	99%	75%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	1h 25m Seattle	SEA 11:30 → EUG 12:58DL 4149 · flown by SkyWest	5h 05m	90%	74%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:09AS 1365	2h 41m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → EUG 17:00AS 2338 · flown by Horizon	5h 47m	99%	66%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:53 → PDX 13:39AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest	51m Portland	PDX 14:30 → EUG 15:23AS 3042 · flown by SkyWest	3h 30m	75%	65%
Alaska Details →	SMF 19:17 → PDX 20:50AS 2335 · flown by Horizon	50m Portland	PDX 21:40 → EUG 22:28AS 2088 · flown by Horizon	3h 11m	57%	45%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON