tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Salt Lake City, leaving 19:20, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Newark on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 34% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2075 United SMF 22:51 EWR 07:01 25% 5% 1.4% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Newark on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Newark is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:53 → PDX 13:39AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 1h 14m Portland PDX 14:53 → EWR 22:57AS 1398 8h 04m 99% 75%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 47m Denver DEN 10:09 → EWR 16:10UA 2381 8h 10m 99% 72%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 2h 44m Houston IAH 13:45 → EWR 18:29UA 1397 10h 14m 100% 68%
DeltaDetails → SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342 3h 57m Salt Lake City SLC 23:38 → EWR 06:00 +1DL 2038 10h 00m 98% 68%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526 2h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 10:29 → EWR 16:49DL 2033 8h 19m 96% 67%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 35m Atlanta ATL 22:40 → EWR 00:58 +1DL 2552 9h 37m 98% 67%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 32m Minneapolis MSP 14:10 → EWR 17:53DL 2866 8h 38m 97% 66%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358 2h 02m Seattle SEA 09:58 → EWR 17:58AS 292 8h 56m 99% 65%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 20:29 → SFO 21:47UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → EWR 07:00 +1UA 1141 7h 31m 55% 37%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 46m San Francisco SFO 16:20 → EWR 01:10 +1UA 2626 8h 00m 56% 36%
AmericanDetails → SMF 19:21 → PHX 21:26AA 1799 48m Phoenix PHX 22:14 → EWR 06:00 +1AA 2156 7h 39m 34% 24%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON