tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Honolulu on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 68% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 3916 Southwest SMF 09:00 HNL 11:45 13% 4% 0.6% no record
AS 819 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:27 HNL 11:09 23% 5% 0.9% 78%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Honolulu on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Honolulu is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → HNL 15:13UA 384 13h 13m 100% 77%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:09 → LIH 13:10AS 965 3h 50m Lihue LIH 17:00 → HNL 17:53AS 1134 10h 44m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526 3h 03m Salt Lake City SLC 11:45 → HNL 14:19DL 316 11h 21m 98% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 26m San Francisco SFO 19:00 → HNL 21:43UA 638 10h 33m 99% 76%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959 3h 13m Kahului OGG 14:09 → HNL 15:02AS 1425 9h 32m 99% 76%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:12 → LAX 07:53AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 27m Los Angeles LAX 09:20 → HNL 12:28AA 31 9h 16m 94% 76%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 20m Phoenix PHX 10:15 → HNL 14:09AA 693 11h 09m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:21 → LAX 10:58DL 3700 · flown by SkyWest 2h 57m Los Angeles LAX 13:55 → HNL 16:43DL 465 10h 22m 97% 74%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m San Francisco SFO 16:45 → HNL 19:25UA 1509 8h 15m 68% 52%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON