Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: American via DFW, leaving 11:07, is the safest bet: 60% chance of reaching Houston on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 4440 Southwest	SMF 07:35	HOU 14:17	13%	3%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741	1h 03m Atlanta	ATL 15:12 → HOU 16:22DL 2381	7h 52m	92%	71%
American Details →	SMF 11:07 → DFW 16:37AA 2081	1h 51m Dallas-Fort Worth	DFW 18:28 → HOU 19:48AA 3391 · flown by Envoy	6h 41m	89%	60%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON