tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 8:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: United via Denver, leaving 08:50, is the safest bet: 70% chance of reaching Dulles on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 54% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 1742 United Flight history → SMF 08:09 IAD 16:15 12% 3% 0.9% 96%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Dulles on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Dulles is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 58m Denver DEN 10:20 → IAD 15:54UA 2087 7h 54m 99% 83%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 52m Minneapolis MSP 14:30 → IAD 18:04DL 3783 · flown by SkyWest 8h 49m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:34 → LAX 09:11UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 1h 28m Los Angeles LAX 10:39 → IAD 18:48UA 2667 8h 14m 93% 75%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 22m Houston IAH 14:23 → IAD 18:49UA 688 10h 34m 100% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 2h 20m Seattle SEA 16:05 → IAD 00:08 +1DL 541 9h 34m 98% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904 2h 48m Atlanta ATL 22:53 → IAD 00:41 +1DL 2549 9h 20m 99% 73%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 2h 30m Atlanta ATL 16:39 → IAD 18:31DL 2902 9h 01m 98% 73%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358 1h 17m Seattle SEA 09:13 → IAD 17:11AS 737 8h 09m 95% 72%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 00m San Francisco SFO 16:34 → IAD 00:55 +1UA 1453 7h 45m 62% 47%
UnitedDetails → SMF 20:29 → SFO 21:47UA 5961 · flown by SkyWest 48m San Francisco SFO 22:35 → IAD 06:55 +1UA 2837 7h 26m 54% 40%
AmericanDetails → SMF 14:24 → DFW 19:58AA 2078 55m Dallas-Fort Worth DFW 20:53 → IAD 00:49 +1AA 2254 7h 25m 61% 35%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON