tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, UA 2863 at 05:15, with a 8% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
UA 2863 United Flight history → SMF 05:15 IAH 11:01 8% 3% 0.7% 93%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Houston on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Houston is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 37m Denver DEN 09:59 → IAH 13:25UA 2030 6h 25m 99% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 07:34 → LAX 09:11UA 5390 · flown by SkyWest 3h 47m Los Angeles LAX 12:58 → IAH 18:23UA 1084 8h 49m 99% 79%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 3h 07m Minneapolis MSP 14:45 → IAH 17:39DL 2644 9h 24m 98% 78%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 2h 53m San Francisco SFO 18:27 → IAH 00:24 +1UA 2464 8h 14m 98% 77%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526 1h 18m Salt Lake City SLC 09:29 → IAH 13:31DL 1532 6h 01m 95% 76%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 44m Dulles IAD 17:59 → IAH 20:25UA 2217 10h 16m 97% 74%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 2h 00m Los Angeles LAX 09:40 → IAH 15:04DL 1143 7h 04m 91% 74%
DeltaDetails → SMF 14:15 → LAX 15:52DL 3812 · flown by SkyWest 2h 43m Los Angeles LAX 18:35 → IAH 23:59DL 1287 7h 44m 97% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 49m San Francisco SFO 16:23 → IAH 22:16UA 8102 6h 06m 58% 40%
UnitedDetails → SMF 13:00 → DEN 16:26UA 1961 49m Denver DEN 17:15 → IAH 20:40UA 1587 5h 40m 61% 34%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON