Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Minneapolis, leaving 06:15, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching New York on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 33% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


B6 162 JetBlue Flight history →	SMF 23:08	JFK 07:30	43%	9%	1.8%	72%worse than usual

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach New York on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (New York is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 16m Minneapolis	MSP 12:54 → JFK 17:00DL 2661	7h 45m	95%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	1h 48m Salt Lake City	SLC 09:59 → JFK 16:47DL 1792	8h 17m	96%	76%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:34 → SEA 13:45DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 16:04 → JFK 00:04 +1DL 1044	9h 30m	98%	75%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 15m Seattle	SEA 22:40 → JFK 06:50 +1DL 452	10h 30m	97%	72%
Delta Details →	SMF 12:21 → ATL 20:05DL 904	2h 35m Atlanta	ATL 22:40 → JFK 00:51 +1DL 1632	9h 30m	98%	70%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 15:31 → JFK 23:35DL 991	9h 18m	99%	70%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358	1h 32m Seattle	SEA 09:28 → JFK 17:23AS 26	8h 21m	97%	69%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	1h 29m Seattle	SEA 11:34 → JFK 20:15DL 415	9h 22m	91%	68%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:09AS 1365	50m Seattle	SEA 13:59 → JFK 21:55AS 34	7h 42m	54%	34%
American Details →	SMF 13:01 → PHX 15:04AA 1677	47m Phoenix	PHX 15:51 → JFK 23:58AA 832	7h 57m	33%	21%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON