Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:27, is the safest bet: 78% chance of reaching Kailua/Kona on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 64% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3918 Southwest	SMF 10:01	KOA 12:44	12%	3%	0.5%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kailua/Kona on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kailua/Kona is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	3h 48m Los Angeles	LAX 16:44 → KOA 19:17DL 311	11h 00m	100%	83%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 53m Denver	DEN 12:15 → KOA 15:37UA 1758	13h 37m	100%	82%
United Details →	SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest	3h 18m San Francisco	SFO 18:52 → KOA 21:41UA 1723	10h 31m	98%	82%
Alaska Details →	SMF 10:09 → LIH 13:10AS 965	3h 52m Lihue	LIH 17:02 → KOA 17:55AS 1120	10h 46m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959	3h 07m Kahului	OGG 14:03 → KOA 14:39AS 1140	9h 09m	99%	80%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:27 → HNL 11:09AS 819	2h 20m Honolulu	HNL 13:29 → KOA 14:31AS 1128	9h 04m	97%	78%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	2h 45m Phoenix	PHX 10:40 → KOA 14:06AA 663	11h 06m	98%	78%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:01 → SEA 07:54AS 1358	2h 05m Seattle	SEA 09:59 → KOA 13:08AS 709	10h 07m	98%	73%
Tight connection: often missed
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:27 → HNL 11:09AS 819	52m Honolulu	HNL 12:01 → KOA 13:03AS 1108	7h 36m	64%	52%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON