Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 14 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 2048 at 05:25 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 38–46%.

Safest bet that day WN 2048 SMF 05:25 → LAS 06:57 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3112 SMF 17:50 → LAS 19:23 · 46% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 2048 Southwest	SMF 05:25	LAS 06:57	3%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 1320 Southwest	SMF 06:15	LAS 07:47	4%	1%	0.6%	no record
WN 2323 Southwest	SMF 07:25	LAS 08:56	8%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 1081 Southwest	SMF 09:56	LAS 11:29	13%	3%	0.6%	no record
WN 3960 Southwest	SMF 10:46	LAS 12:18	18%	4%	0.6%	no record
F9 4144 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 08:23	LAS 10:02	23%	7%	1.1%	74%
WN 3928 Southwest	SMF 11:51	LAS 13:22	29%	6%	0.6%	no record
WN 3767 Southwest	SMF 22:25	LAS 23:58	38%	9%	0.7%	no record
WN 4466 Southwest	SMF 14:16	LAS 15:47	39%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 3931 Southwest	SMF 21:35	LAS 23:07	39%	12%	0.7%	no record
WN 2983 Southwest	SMF 16:16	LAS 17:49	42%	12%	0.6%	no record
F9 2070 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 18:28	LAS 20:00	43%	16%	1.3%	84%worse than usual
WN 2317 Southwest	SMF 19:00	LAS 20:32	43%	12%	0.6%	no record
WN 3112 Southwest	SMF 17:50	LAS 19:23	46%	13%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON