Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 21 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1368 at 05:55 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 17–39%.

Safest bet that day WN 1368 SMF 05:55 → LAX 07:29 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 2485 SMF 19:35 → LAX 21:10 · 39% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 1368 Southwest	SMF 05:55	LAX 07:29	4%	2%	0.6%	no record
DL 3969 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 06:00	LAX 07:40	9%	6%	0.6%	96%
DL 3755 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:17	LAX 12:56	14%	7%	0.6%	94%
AA 6265 American flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:00	LAX 08:41	14%	7%	0.6%	90%
DL 3812 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 14:15	LAX 15:52	16%	6%	0.6%	91%
UA 6021 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 10:06	LAX 11:44	16%	7%	0.6%	94%worse than usual
OO 6279 SkyWest	SMF 11:39	LAX 13:19	17%	8%	0.6%	no record
DL 3759 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 20:50	LAX 22:44	17%	7%	0.6%	90%
DL 3700 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 09:21	LAX 10:58	18%	8%	0.6%	84%
WN 3934 Southwest	SMF 10:20	LAX 11:54	18%	5%	0.6%	no record
UA 5390 United flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 07:34	LAX 09:11	19%	8%	0.6%	84%
DL 3712 Delta flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 18:55	LAX 20:39	20%	7%	0.6%	89%
OO 5259 SkyWest	SMF 16:01	LAX 17:39	20%	7%	0.5%	no record
OO 6278 SkyWest	SMF 18:34	LAX 20:12	22%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3618 Southwest	SMF 13:30	LAX 15:04	26%	4%	0.6%	no record
UA 2194 United	SMF 19:53	LAX 21:26	29%	10%	0.6%	no record
WN 3843 Southwest	SMF 16:15	LAX 17:51	31%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 656 Southwest	SMF 21:08	LAX 22:43	34%	9%	0.6%	no record
AS 505 Alaska	SMF 08:42	LAX 09:53	35%	5%	1.5%	no record
F9 3316 Frontier Flight history →	SMF 19:44	LAX 21:20	39%	12%	1.3%	73%worse than usual
WN 2485 Southwest	SMF 19:35	LAX 21:10	39%	9%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON