Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Kahului, leaving 08:30, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Lihue on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


AS 965 Alaska Flight history →	SMF 10:09	LIH 13:10	17%	3%	0.7%	88%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Lihue on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Lihue is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	1h 49m Los Angeles	LAX 14:45 → LIH 17:41DL 428	9h 24m	98%	77%
United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	3h 38m Denver	DEN 12:00 → LIH 15:37UA 2307	13h 37m	100%	77%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:27 → HNL 11:09AS 819	3h 30m Honolulu	HNL 14:39 → LIH 15:33AS 1103	10h 06m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:11 → SEA 13:13DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest	2h 37m Seattle	SEA 15:50 → LIH 18:58DL 345	10h 47m	98%	73%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:30 → OGG 10:56AS 959	1h 20m Kahului	OGG 12:16 → LIH 13:06AS 1049	7h 36m	95%	73%
American Details →	SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867	3h 25m Phoenix	PHX 11:20 → LIH 15:22AA 697	12h 22m	99%	70%
American Details →	SMF 06:12 → LAX 07:53AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest	55m Los Angeles	LAX 08:48 → LIH 11:47AA 119	8h 35m	86%	67%
Alaska Details →	SMF 06:01 → SEA 07:54AS 1358	3h 34m Seattle	SEA 11:28 → LIH 14:40AS 258	11h 39m	99%	66%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON