tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: one nonstop, WN 3789 at 15:05, with a 26% chance of arriving 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
WN 3789 Southwest SMF 15:05 MCI 20:27 26% 7% 0.6% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kansas City on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kansas City is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863 3h 34m Houston IAH 14:35 → MCI 16:47UA 3987 · flown by Mesa 9h 32m 100% 85%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 1h 21m Denver DEN 09:43 → MCI 12:30UA 2159 5h 30m 99% 84%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229 2h 07m Minneapolis MSP 13:45 → MCI 15:14DL 1613 6h 59m 97% 81%
UnitedDetails → SMF 08:09 → IAD 16:15UA 1742 1h 54m Dulles IAD 18:09 → MCI 20:02UA 1165 9h 53m 100% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526 2h 23m Salt Lake City SLC 10:34 → MCI 13:57DL 2882 6h 27m 97% 81%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon 2h 08m Portland PDX 11:55 → MCI 17:19AS 225 7h 06m 97% 81%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 1h 55m Los Angeles LAX 09:35 → MCI 14:50DL 1517 6h 50m 91% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:30 → ATL 14:09DL 741 1h 11m Atlanta ATL 15:20 → MCI 16:30DL 1660 8h 00m 94% 73%
Tight connection: often missed
AmericanDetails → SMF 13:01 → PHX 15:04AA 1677 1h 03m Phoenix PHX 16:07 → MCI 20:52AA 623 5h 51m 72% 48%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 55m San Francisco SFO 16:29 → MCI 22:15UA 1515 6h 05m 62% 43%
UnitedDetails → SMF 16:19 → DEN 19:45UA 566 55m Denver DEN 20:40 → MCI 23:25UA 1596 5h 06m 57% 33%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON