Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Delta via Atlanta, leaving 06:30, is the safest bet: 59% chance of reaching Orlando on time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →


WN 3943 Southwest	SMF 22:30	MCO 06:34	19%	5%	0.6%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Orlando on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Orlando is 3 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 48m Denver	DEN 10:10 → MCO 16:04UA 2354	8h 04m	99%	78%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:20 → SEA 19:25DL 4153 · flown by SkyWest	3h 50m Seattle	SEA 23:15 → MCO 07:40 +1DL 448	11h 20m	97%	76%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	3h 09m Los Angeles	LAX 16:05 → MCO 00:07 +1DL 718	9h 50m	100%	76%
Alaska Details →	SMF 11:13 → SEA 13:09AS 1365	2h 19m Seattle	SEA 15:28 → MCO 23:55AS 420	9h 42m	99%	73%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:15 → MSP 11:38DL 2229	1h 07m Minneapolis	MSP 12:45 → MCO 17:04DL 2225	7h 49m	94%	72%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 55m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:36 → MCO 06:00 +1DL 2069	10h 00m	98%	70%
United Details →	SMF 05:15 → IAH 11:01UA 2863	1h 24m Houston	IAH 12:25 → MCO 16:04UA 2662	7h 49m	96%	69%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	3h 12m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:23 → MCO 18:01DL 2024	9h 31m	98%	69%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON