Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11 looks like a normal day here: all 2 nonstops are 8–17% likely to arrive 15+ min late.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →


DL 2229 Delta Flight history →	SMF 06:15	MSP 11:38	8%	3%	0.6%	92%
DL 1788 Delta	SMF 13:07	MSP 18:34	17%	5%	0.7%	no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Minneapolis on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Minneapolis is 2 h ahead of Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.


United Details →	SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889	1h 18m Denver	DEN 09:40 → MSP 12:40UA 397	5h 40m	98%	86%
Alaska Details →	SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon	2h 02m Portland	PDX 11:49 → MSP 17:02AS 332	6h 49m	97%	84%
Delta Details →	SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526	2h 59m Salt Lake City	SLC 11:10 → MSP 14:40DL 2924	7h 10m	97%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest	3h 35m Los Angeles	LAX 11:15 → MSP 16:50DL 413	8h 50m	100%	82%
Delta Details →	SMF 07:53 → SEA 10:05DL 4075 · flown by SkyWest	2h 08m Seattle	SEA 12:13 → MSP 17:29DL 536	7h 36m	96%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 11:17 → LAX 12:56DL 3755 · flown by SkyWest	2h 26m Los Angeles	LAX 15:22 → MSP 20:59DL 2198	7h 42m	98%	80%
Delta Details →	SMF 13:00 → SEA 15:09DL 4125 · flown by SkyWest	2h 56m Seattle	SEA 18:05 → MSP 23:30DL 949	8h 30m	97%	77%
Delta Details →	SMF 17:00 → SLC 19:41DL 1342	3h 36m Salt Lake City	SLC 23:17 → MSP 02:49 +1DL 8847	7h 49m	97%	77%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON