tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Tue 4:00 PM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: Alaska via Honolulu, leaving 08:27, is the safest bet: 73% chance of reaching Kahului on time; the tightest one-ticket connections make it only 38% of the time.

Nonstops that day

All 1 nonstop →
AS 959 Alaska Flight history → SMF 08:30 OGG 10:56 12% 4% 0.8% 87%

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Kahului on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival (Kahului is 3 h behind Sacramento). Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 3h 38m Denver DEN 12:00 → OGG 15:05UA 1736 13h 05m 100% 78%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:12 → LAX 07:53AA 6265 · flown by SkyWest 1h 11m Los Angeles LAX 09:04 → OGG 11:44AA 271 8h 32m 94% 77%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 3h 08m Phoenix PHX 11:03 → OGG 14:32AA 645 11h 32m 99% 76%
DeltaDetails → SMF 11:11 → SEA 13:13DL 3881 · flown by SkyWest 1h 46m Seattle SEA 14:59 → OGG 17:56DL 344 9h 45m 95% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:27 → HNL 11:09AS 819 3h 42m Honolulu HNL 14:51 → OGG 15:45AS 1136 10h 18m 99% 75%
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:58 → SLC 08:42DL 1526 2h 48m Salt Lake City SLC 11:30 → OGG 14:08DL 623 11h 10m 97% 70%
DeltaDetails → SMF 06:00 → LAX 07:40DL 3969 · flown by SkyWest 50m Los Angeles LAX 08:30 → OGG 11:07DL 425 8h 07m 81% 68%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 10:09 → LIH 13:10AS 965 1h 20m Lihue LIH 14:30 → OGG 15:19AS 1260 8h 10m 95% 68%
Tight connection: often missed
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 1h 06m San Francisco SFO 16:40 → OGG 19:17UA 1749 8h 07m 66% 51%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:12 → SEA 13:07AS 1365 46m Seattle SEA 13:53 → OGG 16:59AS 223 8h 47m 38% 27%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON