Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 6 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3935 at 08:00 is the safest bet, 5% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 29%.

Safest bet that day WN 3935 SMF 08:00 → ONT 09:37 · 5% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3955 SMF 21:20 → ONT 22:56 · 29% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3935 Southwest	SMF 08:00	ONT 09:37	5%	2%	0.6%	no record
WN 2123 Southwest	SMF 10:45	ONT 12:22	10%	4%	0.6%	no record
WN 3949 Southwest	SMF 13:55	ONT 15:32	20%	5%	0.6%	no record
WN 2342 Southwest	SMF 15:25	ONT 17:02	22%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 1095 Southwest	SMF 20:12	ONT 21:43	29%	11%	0.6%	no record
WN 3955 Southwest	SMF 21:20	ONT 22:56	29%	11%	0.6%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON