Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 4 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: UA 2370 at 07:00 is the safest bet, 17% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 30–43%.

Safest bet that day UA 2370 SMF 07:00 → ORD 13:10 · 17% chance 15+ min late · usually 87% on time Riskiest AA 1906 SMF 15:14 → ORD 21:39 · 43% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


UA 2370 United Flight history →	SMF 07:00	ORD 13:10	17%	7%	0.8%	87%
UA 1278 United Flight history →	SMF 09:35	ORD 15:36	30%	15%	1.4%	85%worse than usual
UA 2797 United	SMF 14:23	ORD 20:34	42%	25%	1.4%	no record
AA 1906 American	SMF 15:14	ORD 21:39	43%	20%	1.4%	no record

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON