Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 10 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1200 at 05:30 is the safest bet, 4% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 20–34%.

Safest bet that day WN 1200 SMF 05:30 → PDX 07:13 · 4% chance 15+ min late Riskiest WN 3845 SMF 19:10 → PDX 20:53 · 34% chance 15+ min late

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort. Dimmed: airlines we don’t forecast yet, shown with their 12-month record if they usually fly that weekday.


WN 1200 Southwest	SMF 05:30	PDX 07:13	4%	1%	0.5%	no record
AS 338 Alaska	SMF 08:03	PDX 09:45	14%	3%	1.1%	no record
AS 3003 Alaska flown by SkyWest Flight history →	SMF 11:53	PDX 13:39	16%	5%	0.7%	85%
AS 720 Alaska	SMF 18:16	PDX 19:57	20%	5%	0.9%	no record
AS 675 Alaska	SMF 14:55	PDX 16:35	21%	4%	0.9%	no record
WN 3979 Southwest	SMF 13:00	PDX 14:43	23%	5%	0.5%	no record
WN 3492 Southwest	SMF 21:45	PDX 23:27	26%	8%	0.6%	no record
WN 3845 Southwest	SMF 19:10	PDX 20:53	34%	10%	0.6%	no record
AS 2095 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 08:13	PDX 09:47	9%	4%	1.5%	91%
AS 2335 Alaska flown by Horizon no forecast: 12-month record	SMF 19:17	PDX 20:50	33%	10%	1.9%	67%

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON