Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · 12 nonstops

Sun, Oct 11: WN 3959 at 05:20 is the safest bet, 3% chance of being 15+ min late; evening flights run 24–41%.

Safest bet that day WN 3959 SMF 05:20 → PHX 07:22 · 3% chance 15+ min late Riskiest AA 1799 SMF 19:21 → PHX 21:26 · 41% chance 15+ min late · usually 74% on time

Every nonstop on Sun, Oct 11

12-month record →

Ranked by the chance of arriving 15+ minutes late (typical odds: the weather this date has had in past years), with each flight’s on-time record over Aug 2025 – Jul 2026 beside it. Times are local. Pick a flight for its forecast. Click a column to sort.


WN 3959 Southwest	SMF 05:20	PHX 07:22	3%	1%	0.7%	no record
WN 3993 Southwest	SMF 07:20	PHX 09:26	9%	3%	0.7%	no record
AA 1867 American Flight history →	SMF 06:00	PHX 07:55	10%	5%	0.8%	93%
WN 1211 Southwest	SMF 10:20	PHX 12:26	15%	4%	0.7%	no record
OO 4913 SkyWest	SMF 10:02	PHX 12:13	23%	9%	0.7%	no record
MQ 4070 Envoy	SMF 16:30	PHX 18:38	24%	6%	0.9%	no record
WN 2133 Southwest	SMF 15:56	PHX 17:58	27%	7%	0.6%	no record
WN 2883 Southwest	SMF 14:16	PHX 16:18	27%	6%	0.7%	no record
AA 1677 American Flight history →	SMF 13:01	PHX 15:04	32%	8%	0.7%	86%worse than usual
WN 4190 Southwest Flight history →	SMF 21:17	PHX 23:20	32%	11%	0.8%	91%worse than usual
WN 1683 Southwest	SMF 19:25	PHX 21:27	35%	10%	0.7%	no record
AA 1799 American Flight history →	SMF 19:21	PHX 21:26	41%	10%	0.8%	74%worse than usual

How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON