tailodds FORECAST
Tickets
Any day
Sunday, October 11 · typical odds for a Sunday (too early for a weather forecast) · issued Mon 12:00 AM ET · connections flying that day

Sun, Oct 11: WN 1417 at 07:45 is the safest bet, 7% chance of being 15+ min late; the others run 26%.

Nonstops that day

All 2 nonstops →
WN 1417 Southwest SMF 07:45 PSP 09:24 7% 4% 0.6% no record
WN 1277 Southwest SMF 17:52 PSP 19:34 26% 9% 0.9% no record

Best connections that day, one ticket

Most reliable Quickest (80%+ on time)

Ranked by chance you reach Palm Springs on time, from each leg’s forecast for the day. Total trip = scheduled departure to arrival. Layovers up to 4 hours. Pick a connection for its 12-month details.
DeltaDetails → SMF 05:30 → SLC 08:11DL 1526 2h 34m Salt Lake City SLC 10:45 → PSP 11:41DL 4042 · flown by SkyWest 6h 11m 97% 88%
DeltaDetails → SMF 09:45 → SLC 12:27DL 1367 3h 13m Salt Lake City SLC 15:40 → PSP 16:33DL 3852 · flown by SkyWest 6h 48m 98% 80%
UnitedDetails → SMF 05:00 → DEN 08:22UA 1889 2h 50m Denver DEN 11:12 → PSP 12:29UA 687 7h 29m 99% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 11:53 → PDX 13:39AS 3003 · flown by SkyWest 3h 57m Portland PDX 17:36 → PSP 20:14AS 3022 · flown by SkyWest 8h 21m 100% 75%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 06:02 → SEA 07:56AS 1358 2h 30m Seattle SEA 10:26 → PSP 13:08AS 457 7h 06m 99% 73%
UnitedDetails → SMF 14:10 → SFO 15:34UA 5323 · flown by SkyWest 3h 04m San Francisco SFO 18:38 → PSP 20:26UA 5705 · flown by SkyWest 6h 16m 98% 72%
AmericanDetails → SMF 06:00 → PHX 07:55AA 1867 2h 43m Phoenix PHX 10:38 → PSP 11:55AA 1884 5h 55m 98% 71%
AlaskaDetails → SMF 08:13 → PDX 09:47AS 2095 · flown by Horizon 47m Portland PDX 10:34 → PSP 12:57AS 1323 4h 44m 79% 64%
How these are worked out. Each flight’s odds are our forecast for that day (typical odds until the weather forecast covers it); flights of airlines we don’t forecast yet use their 12-month record and are marked. Makes the connection: the first flight’s 12-month lateness curve, scaled so its chance of arriving 15+ min late matches the day’s forecast, at the layover minus the 45-minute minimum (90 on separate tickets). Arrives on time: first flight not cancelled × connection made × second flight not cancelled × second flight within 15 minutes, each from the day’s forecast.

About this data: forecast odds from our model for Sun, Oct 11 (newest published update); 12-month records from US DOT on-time data, Aug 2025 – Jul 2026, all US airlines; regional flights count under the airline that sells them. JSON